A Permanent Membership in the United Nations Security Council for the European Union

As the United Kingdom finally exited the European Union after more than two years of chaos and deadlock, many await to see what a post-Brexit European Union (EU) would look like. One thing is clear: Germany and France are still the spirit heads of the Union. And the question is: Will the dynamics between the two countries change? Since its founding, both countries have been driving forces behind the EU, but their influences have evolved over time. The most powerful politician in Europe for the last 15 years, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, stepped down as leader of the Christian Democratic Union last year after her party suffered heavy losses in many regional races. A young and rising leader in Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron aspired to pick up the mantle to lead the EU,  but has encountered domestic and foreign obstacles. Will Germany and France act together for the greater good of the European Union under Merkel and Macron? Or will they compete for larger political impact and leadership? Although only time will tell the answer of these questions, one recent development sheds light on this inquiry.

In November 2018, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz called for France to have its permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) replaced by a European Union seat in order to let countries in the EU to speak with one voice:

“In the medium term, France’s seat on the Security Council could be converted into a seat for the EU. In return, France would then have the right to appoint the EU ambassador to the United Nations in perpetuity. It’s clear to me that this might require a little persuasion work in Paris, but it is a bold and shrewd goal.”

Not surprisingly, the French government rejected this proposal and ridiculed it as “legally impossible,” for there is neither precedent nor incentive for France to do so. However, Scholz, while "realiz[ing the proposal] will take some convincing in Paris,” still believed that “it would be a bold and smart goal." 

Scholz proposed this idea during his speech about the European Union at the Humboldt University in Berlin. He spoke about the values of the EU and pointed out that the future of Germany relies on the future of Europe. For decades, Germany arguably has been the leader of the Union and has supported other member states with financial assistance during crises like the Great Recession of 2008. However, on the international stage and particularly in the UN, Germany’s influence is crippled and limited. For example, among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council  (“the Big Five”), Germany is not one of them. The Big Five are powerful because they can veto any resolution in the United Nations, no matter how much international support a resolution has. In the past, Germany has campaigned for its own seat at the Security Council but failed to succeed. Therefore, it would be an alternative for Germany to yield influence in the Security Council through having an EU permanent seat. 

Scholz offered few details and logistics of what it means to “convert” the French UNSC seat into an EU one. Germany’s strategy is to create a more centralized and state-like European Union and ultimately, expand its own influence in the UN. Although the European Union started as only an integrated economic zone (European Economic Community) among a few European countries, it has become more state-like over the years as it adopted the Eurozone and attempted to establish a formal constitution. That said, the Union is still far away from being an actual country. Article 23, Chapter V of the UN Chapter dictates that the UNSC “shall consist of fifteen Members of the United Nations.” Eligibility of UN membership is defined in Chapter II as “peace-loving states.” Since the European Union is a supranational entity that does not have a standing military, it is not qualified to join the UN, let alone have a seat at the UNSC. Therefore, Scholz’s proposal, if realized, will most likely require that France surrenders its decision-making authority to the EU. More specifically, France will likely still have its permanent membership at the UNSC, but the EU will have full or majority control over it. For example, the EU can use this seat to veto resolutions that are not in the best interest of the Union. To do this, member states of the European Union must coordinate and  agree on major foreign policy objectives in order to participate in the UNSC. And as leader of the EU, Germany will wield significant influence over this seat and its veto power.

With the United Kingdom having left the European Union, France is now the only permanent representative of both the EU and the UN Security Council. In many ways, replacing the current French seat on the UNSC with a permanent membership for the EU is feasible. Because the German chancellor still has leverage to effectively negotiate with President Macron, an EU UNSC seat can be achieved through a potential comprehensive bargain between Germany and France that will benefit both countries. 

First of all, replacing France’s UNSC seat with an EU one will not destabilize the EU's Franco-German engine, but strengthen it. The structure of global political power has rapidly changed and evolved in recent years, resulting in the diminishing influence of the EU in world affairs. In 2019, there was a clear trend of the rise of nationalism, unilateralism, and protectionism in Europe. These right-wing ideologies pose threats to the long-standing integration approach in the European Union, which has been historically supported by the Franco-German leadership. Replacing the French UNSC seat would enable the European Union to work alongside four other major nations who occupy the permanent UNSC seats in the world, and subsequently reinstate and reinforce the idea of a unified European community. This approach will also tie Germany and France closer together in the long term because the two leaders of the EUwill have to collaborate when it comes to making decisions for the EU seat in the UN Security Council.

In addition, the current global political landscape does not look promising for the EU, underscoring the need to act as one voice instead of as a loose coalition of states. Having the same objectives and goals does not equate to having a strong and collective political force. With the rise of China and the ongoing threat of Russia, which has repeatedly demonstrated military hostility toward Europe, it is imperative for the EU to have a more cooperative and unified stance, especially on international policy. As difficult as that may seem, an EU seat in the UNSC will no doubt push and potentially force the EU member states to act collectively. Ultimately, this unprecedented shared veto power in the UNSC will encourage integration of European countries.

Furthermore, although France has unequivocally rejected the proposal of turning its current UNSC seat into a European Union seat, Germany can still start the conversation and negotiate a consensus with France through a potential bargain between the two countries. The key is President Macron, who is deeply committed to the European Project. Macron has recently suffered a steep decline in popularity due to several political miscalculations. Hence, a success for France, or even the appearance of success, on the international stage is desirable for Macron, whose political mandate is deteriorating. If Germany can help Macron achieve some of his objectives and initiatives for the EU, the French President will regain a considerable amount of respect and influence both domestically and internationally. 

Therefore, in exchange for replacing France’s UNSC seat with an EU one, Germany can offer support for Macron’s plan for the EU with a major compromise. First, Germany should back Macron’s Eurozone reform proposal. Germany has opposed such a proposal in the past because it did not regard it as a priority for the Union. In one of his most recent speeches on his EU plan in March 2019, Macron made no mention of the subject, partially due to concerns over Berlin’s sensitivity on the issue. To gain his support for the replacement of France’s UNSC seat, Angela Merkel’s government should approve the French president’s proposal for a Eurozone governance system. One of the best incentives Germany could offer would be support for Macron’s proposal to form the Eurozone administrative system. In addition, Germany should propose Franco-German leadership in the Eurozone governance system, with France retaining slight advantages over Germany through greater representation, veto power, or overridden veto power. Furthermore, this bargain should prioritize Macron’s long list of goals for the EU while considering the priorities of other EU member states. For example, proposals such as the European Agency for the Protection of Democracies and investment in Africa will likely be well received in the Union while topics like shared EU intelligence and a new defense treaty will draw skepticism and even opposition from EU peers. Germany must commit to a balance of immediate, critical interests and long-term, controversial causes. The bottom line is that while Germany will not necessarily support all of Macron’s EU visions, Germany’s firmer commitment to working with Macron might convince him to agree to negotiate France’s UNSC seat.

Extraordinary times demand bold moves. An EU UNSC seat has the potential to shake up not only Franco-German relations but also the power dynamics of the European Union. Emmanuel Macron, whose presidency is approved by only one-third of his constituents, is facing reelection in two years. Angela Merkel, whose term as German chancellor is ending in 2021, has nothing to fear nor anything to lose. However impossible it might look, an EU seat at the UNSC at the expense of the current French seat is not only plausible, but beneficial.