The Conundrum of the Trucking Industry

The United States is undergoing a technological revolution that has left many Americans worried about potentially losing their jobs in the future. One industry that technology may have a deep effect on is the trucking industry. With the advent of advancing technology and driverless cars, many news articles, even as early as 2013, predicted a potentially gloomy future for truck drivers. However, does technology hurt the trucking industry? Will driverless trucks hurt drivers? What role should the federal government play in all of this? The answers are not as clear cut as they  may seem to be.

The trucking industry employs around 1.8 million Americans, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), making up one of the largest industries in the United States. Even though technology poses a fear to current long-haul truckers, there has been a growing shortage of people willing to dedicate their lives to transporting goods between various locations in order to keep American businesses running. The American Trucking Association (ATA) calculated that there is a shortage of around 60,000 drivers. Additionally, the ATA calculated that the shortage “may balloon to almost 175,000” by 2024. The reasons for the shortage are based on several factors. The ATA states that the lifestyle of being a truck driver, the aging demographic of truck drivers, the variety of other jobs hiring people, and various regulations have all contributed toward people avoiding driving as a career and drivers leaving the industry. 

In regards to regulations specifically, truckers have been especially vocal about the use of Electronic Logging Devices, or ELDs, that the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has required all drivers to use. The issue truckers have with ELDs is that they are used to prevent truckers from driving over the 11-hour total limit implemented by the FMCSA and that no matter how far truckers may be from home or their destination, even if it is 5 miles away, they must pull over and wait 10 hours until they can drive again. Additionally, truckers are discouraged from naps, longer meal breaks, and other forms of rest once they begin driving since once they start, they have only a 14-hour window until the ELD will shut their vehicle off. There is no wiggle room for a time violation, which could result in heavy fines for the driver and risk their job. These tedious federal regulations, although implemented for the safety of the driver and other highway commuters, do result in some negative consequences. 

So, where does technology come into play in the trucker industry debacle? Well, new breakthroughs in autonomous driving have allowed experts to forecast that “as many as 294,000 long distance driver”  jobs will be lost as self-driving trucks replace drivers. In the industry of truck driving, where good-paying, long-haul jobs are a lifeline for many drivers, autonomous cars could first threaten the one sustainable area of the industry that pays a decent amount. From the view of companies who need drivers, though, switching to autonomous vehicles could save around $70 billion annually and increase productivity by 30%, effectively lowering the rising shipping costs stemming from the driver shortage. While the customer certainly wins if trucks were to be autonomous, those apart of the trucking industry would face mixed results. While the Labor Center at Berkeley does state that jobs could certainly be potentially created from the use of autonomous long-haul trucks, many of these jobs will likely end up paying less than typical long-haul jobs, as delivery drivers would most likely be treated as independent contractors, thus making them ineligible for many benefits. Additionally, because many truckers are paid by the mile, taking jobs away from truckers who operate on the open highway could also mean a wage drop.

Though truckers may seem to initially lose from the use of autonomous vehicles, there is a chance that with the correct policies and rollout, autonomous vehicles could solve many of the industry’s problems and help drivers who are unhappy with the state of their career. A study from the American Center for Mobility finds that while around 300,000 jobs could be eliminated annually, the workforce will shift toward monitoring analysis and maintenance. Even though the future of trucking will allow vehicles to possibly drive themselves, it will be necessary for humans to be involved in most stages of the processes if troubleshooting was required. Furthermore, at this stage in automotive innovation, it may not be in the best interest of the government nor companies to allow autonomous freight-carrying vehicles to roam the roads with a lack of proper supervision. Seth Clevenger, Managing Editor at Transport Topics, stated his idea that perhaps one of the first stages of innovation in automation could include synchronizing vehicles in platoons to increase efficiency–– where maybe one or two drivers would either  ride with the convoy to troubleshoot issues or drive the first truck while others follow in suit closely behind. Instead of requiring one driver per truck, automotive technology would only require one every four or five trucks, a dynamic which over the long-run could be a solution to the driver shortage issue. 

Automotive technology in the trucking industry could additionally solve issues regarding driver pay. One of the biggest gripes of drivers and reasons for their avoiding or leaving the industry is due to the low pay based on miles driven. With autonomous vehicular technology assisting drivers, as well as the use of convoys, drivers would be capable of handling more freight and driving for longer periods of time. Technology that aids in driving will allow drivers more breaks to take their focus away from the road and allow vehicles to take away some of the physical tolls of driving. The worries about ELDs and federal weight regulations to haul freight might dissipate once drivers are given more flexibility thanks to new technology. 

As for the role of government in this truck industry dilemma, instead of using legislative or regulatory power to prevent the use of autonomous trucks to save current trucking jobs, I argue we should welcome the advance of innovative automotive technology––with some caveats, of course. For example, a better policy alternative would be the creation of regulations that cap how many vehicles in any given convoy a driver would have control over, so as to maintain highway safety standards while providing companies a chance to solve their own driver shortage problems. Additionally, federal regulations would need to change regarding driver hour limits when operating fully autonomous or partially autonomous vehicles that require less scrupulous focus on the road and where the driver is more of a troubleshooter. Though state governments will have say over what occurs in their highway jurisdiction, oversight over advanced trucking technologies would be best left to the federal government where regulations can remain consistent across state lines. Consistent regulation would help to ensure that the trucking industry can remain efficient no matter where they travel in America.

With skyrocketing shipping costs, the introduction of new, innovative technologies to the trucking world and the accompanying change in federal regulations could be the solution to many of the industry’s problems. The last thing the government should do is implement an extremely hardline policy like what it has done with ELDs. By providing drivers some flexibility in their lives with technology, instead of controlling every minute of it, the government can more effectively aid both the industry and the workers. While there is still much to be done technologically and legislatively to allow for the use of autonomous vehicles, there is certainly a bright future for the trucking industry.