Are Rust Belt Cities Ready to Become “Climate Refuges?”
I have visited Rochester, NY, or rather, a few streets along the east side of the Genesee River near the Eastman School of Music. Some lingering impressions were the ornate 19th-century architecture, the surprising walkability of the city, and the seemingly empty streets and buildings. While passing suburbs lined with McMansions on the way in, we were warned to watch ourselves on where to stay away from, especially at night. While many of these characteristics are present in all cities, the suburban-concentrated wealth and the sensation of mourning a vibrant past were especially acute. This reality is a common one amongst other Rust Belt cities, a once powerful region at the forefront of American industry that has seen economic and consequently population decline since an abrupt conversion to foreign steel production in the 1970s-80s. Extending from northern New York to eastern Wisconsin, the Rust Belt includes the cities of Rochester, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Detroit, St. Louis, Minneapolis, and others.
The post-industrial decline has confounded a generation used to a key industry, some locals at an Erie bar citing “cut-off years” where graduating a year later than a classmate meant losing out on closing mill jobs. There is still money, though it is often being invested into non-municipality-taxed suburbs or paying the wages of the few mill jobs left, now mainly outsourced. However, hope and ingenuity persist in the people left and those moving in. Most Rust Belt cities are focusing on universities, healthcare, and small businesses, and many are welcoming immigrants to combat the population decline. This in turn leads to an increase in small businesses and local hiring. For the first time since the 1980s, Buffalo experienced a positive population change of 6.5% in 2024, largely due to Puerto Rican immigrants. While all other Rust Belt cities are declining in population, the rates are less severe than in decades past. Interestingly, amidst what is hopefully a resurgence, Buffalo’s mayor, Byron Brown, has begun to market Buffalo as a “climate refuge city,” its location and recent green efforts making it an ideal alternative to areas of climatic stress in America. In 2019, The New York Times popularized the term “climate refuge city” after Harvard Professor Jesse Keenan pushed a “Climate-Proof Duluth” at a speech in Duluth, MN. With wildfires, hurricanes, and dangerous summer temperatures, it is not unreasonable to idealize Rust Belt cities for their climate-insulated nature and existing infrastructure. After describing the allure of these potential climate havens, however, it is also crucial to test their alignment with local interests. Will sustainability align with desires for the survivability of the region, or is it simply a catchy marketing tactic that could increase gentrification and divert funds from essential projects?
Whether or not the Rust Belt can withstand it, there is a demand for climate refuge cities. In 2022, one-third of relocating Americans moved due to climate change, and Hurricane Maria was a main factor in Puerto Rican immigration to Buffalo. There have been climate-based reservations in deeming these areas “climate change havens,” many sources citing hurricanes and steep temperature rises. While these concerns should be investigated, they are still significantly less severe than the immediate danger of extreme heat, wildfires, and drought pose in other regions of America. Housing, infrastructure, and funding are the more compelling uncertainties. Mobility is often tied to wealth, so those moving to the Rust Belt could further contribute to suburban sprawl without investing in the city. This has already occurred with the gentrification and the displacement of locals near waterfront areas, especially in Duluth.
In addition to housing climate migrants, Rust Belt cities have been positioned as possible tech hubs. Existing manufacturing infrastructure and low property value have already attracted some companies to establish themselves in these areas. Pittsburgh is home to the Green Building Alliance and is sometimes considered a prospective center for biotech, nanotech, and hydrogen cars. Sustainability-related research lacks concrete beginnings in the Rust Belt, though broader technological industries have already opened new centers. In 2018, Ford purchased the Michigan Central Station and has converted it into a center to host tech start-ups, institutions, and other projects meant to hire locally. The CHIPS Act, passed by the Biden administration in 2022, promotes the domestic production of semiconductors with a special emphasis on the Rust Belt region. In response to CHIPS, Honda and Intel have pledged to invest significantly in establishing manufacturing plants in Ohio. However, due to implementation delays following CHIPS legislation, it remains to be seen if the Trump administration will continue to subsidize their construction. There also persists the question of who the new jobs will be for. Requiring a college degree, most of these positions could go to educated youth, as 33% of US STEM graduates attended Rust Belt colleges. Unfortunately, after the manufacturing decline, much of Generation X and older anticipated steel jobs to resurface or were unable to pursue higher education. While these newer tech jobs will not solve current unemployment, they could be promising for young adult employment, population retention, and the rebuilding of wealth within the region.
To understand the implications of targeted policies and enticing potentials, one must first understand the region as it currently stands. As an outsider only recently drawn to learning about the Rust Belt, I cannot claim to know the region. However, I have come to recognize how its complexity and nuance make addressing challenges and redirecting toward “climate refuge” status difficult. In the question of how to bolster the population, there is both the rejection and embracing of immigrants, some cities encouraging their entrepreneurship and others claiming there are too few jobs to accept more.
There is also discord regarding the number of steel jobs left and where the money is going. Author and founder of the Belt Magazine Anne Trubek along with other locals claim steel is “gone,” though Zeb, a Pittsburgh mill worker, tells a different story. Although heavily reduced, steel mill jobs still exist. The demographic filling them, however, has shifted towards college graduates unable to secure other work. Even when offered these positions with a starting salary of $80K, older generations, once first in line, decline. Zeb interprets this as a situation of pride and an increased reliance on government aid during the pandemic. Those who have culturally moved on from millwork find it emotionally difficult to return after the industry failed them, though financial ruin is avoidable with government checks. There seems to be this attitude of mourning history, though remaining stranded between returning or starting anew. These modern mill employees then purchase homes in newly developed suburbs, leaving the older surrounding towns half-abandoned. Intense division is present even outside of city centers.
At this time, I do not think Rust Belt sustainability projects, even those that prioritize saving the city in addition to fighting climate change, are feasible. When locals were interviewed about what needed improvement, “gun control,” “social centers,” and “drug counseling” were the most prevalent. Experts from the region called for re-urbanization over re-industrialization, the conversion of vacant sites into affordable housing, and the incentivizing of companies to set up headquarters in these areas. Nowhere were sustainability projects and becoming a “climate refuge” mentioned. Now, it is plausible that the topics of sustainability goals and city marketing would not arise naturally during a local interview. However, the most frequently sought-after improvements were all intensely related to their immediate community, and the expert opinions especially would require substantial funding. At the end of watching each interview, I attempted to imagine myself as the interviewer, posing a final question about how they would feel about sustainability projects. Invariably, it would make me feel nervous and out of touch. These are incredibly tight-knit communities watching their children get shot, their infrastructure crumble, and outsiders vie for the higher-paying jobs. Diverting limited funds towards a broad sustainability movement at the expense of local, life-saving projects would likely not garner support. And, no matter the policy, its effectiveness will be influenced by how it is accepted in the area of interest.
I personally believe sustainability is important and has the potential to economically benefit Rust Belt cities in the future. However, this movement relies on a stronger foundation and the stabilization of local challenges. This is not to shut down smaller sustainability endeavors— projects like creating green spaces in Gary, Detroit, and Buffalo are manageable and beneficial. There are simply more immediate, survival-based concerns that need to be addressed before confronting large-scale “climate refuge” changes like creating stormwater reserves, building waterfront homes, and going solar. Rust Belt inner cities and older towns need to receive the attention and funds newly developed suburbs are currently enjoying. This could come from affordable housing being built in these areas, increased immigration to the Rust Belt, or federal funds going to local politicians who understand the situation, as suggested by Anne Trubek, instead of federal legislation. Only once the inner cities and outskirts have been revitalized, where community members feel their youth are safer from violence and drugs, where local jobs are plentiful, can a city be marketed and molded to climate refuge status. Even once this has been met, integration of new populations must be done carefully so as to avoid gentrification.
Rust Belt cities have the current ingenuity and legacy of infrastructure to rise again as a prominent region. However, change must then be beneficial to the locals, immigrants included, and the original infrastructure from which this power is derived. On my next visit to Rochester, I would hope to see fuller streets and thriving businesses, the unapologetically Rust Belt architecture supporting affordable housing and unmarred by luxurious renovations. A new green space would be nice, though not if gunshots and desperation plague the next street over. While sustainability projects could be economically beneficial in the future, a mayor’s proclamation of a singular city being a “climate refuge” should not be spread as a trendy prospect for the entire Rust Belt.
All interviews were extracted from online sources, not conducted by the author