Deja Vu: Voters and the Political Climates of 2024 and 2020
It's the rematch of a lifetime. It’s also the rematch that no one wanted. As election day approaches, the sad reality is coming to fruition: we have to watch the same two old men fight over the US presidency…again. This election stands at a turning point in many controversial conflicts, yet, both candidates leave voters disillusioned and disappointed. Some voters see the election of Trump as putting a convicted criminal into the Oval Office while others cannot justify electing Biden for another 4-year term. Although many people are pessimistic regarding this election, we must play the cards we are dealt, even if it is an awful hand.
Today, according to 538, the polls show Joe Biden and Donald Trump neck and neck coming up to the election. Biden has defeated Trump before, can he do it again? By analyzing the current political climate, I predict Biden will defeat Trump again because of his policy positions, Trump's ongoing court cases, and the effect of third party candidates.
The last time these two candidates met in the ring, Biden defeated Trump by 74 electoral college votes. There were very close races in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, but Biden ultimately pulled out the win. Because of the closeness of these races, however, the transfer of power was far from peaceful. An incredulous Trump accused election officials of election fraud, convincing his support base that the election was stolen. Eventually, this led to the infamous events on January 6th, climaxing to an insurrection at the Capitol.
Now, four years later, history seems to have repeated itself, pitting the same two candidates against each other. However, the election environment is very different than in 2020. First, Biden is coming into the race as the incumbent, and he is not coming in hot. Biden's public approval rating is sitting at a measly 38%. Historically, the two presidents with approval rates below 40% going into reelection, George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, both lost. Biden has a lot of ground to make up. There are three main reasons that voters are hesitant to re-elect Biden: performance in vital policy areas, age, and past promise to be a one-term president.
According to a recent Gallup poll, voters disapprove of how Biden has handled four major policy issues: Ukraine, the economy, foreign affairs, and immigration. For all of these conflicts, Biden’s highest disapproval rating is 53%. It is pretty clear that citizens do not believe he is doing a good job running the country.
One of the other concerns of Biden's re-election is his age. As found from a New York Times poll, 61% of polled voters believe that he is too old to be an effective president in 2024. Biden would be 86 when his second term comes to an end, making him the oldest sitting president in American history. The concerns about his age span across generational, gendered, educational, and racial lines.
Another inhibiting factor for some voters is Biden's previous implied promise to run for one term. In his 2020 campaign, he referred to himself as “the bridge” to the future generation of Democratic leaders and advertised himself as a “transitional candidate”. Although he never explicitly stated that he wouldn’t rerun in 2024, these statements insinuated that he would bow out after one term. Regardless of what he seemed to imply, he never attempted to foster another Democratic candidate to take his place after his term was over. This behavior has left a lot of voters, specifically moderate Republicans, wary of his reliability. In 2020, many voters were willing to excuse other concerns because they believed it would result in younger candidates for the next election. As the 2024 election drew closer, he backpedaled on this promise, leaving many voters disillusioned.
But Biden is not the only one facing obstacles. Voters have multiple reservations against Donald Trump as well. For starters, Trump is currently facing 88 criminal offenses in 4 different cases related to his activities in attempting to overturn the 2020 election, falsifying documents in New York, election interference in Georgia, and mismanaging classified government documents. Most Democrats view the upcoming election as black and white: you either vote for a criminal, or you don’t. Many also believe that the result of the 2024 election will greatly affect future standards for law and justice. On the other side of the aisle, it is unclear how these charges have affected Republican voters. Most polls exhibit that the indictments do not greatly affect the election. However, according to a recent poll by CNN, “24% of Trump's backers say a conviction might cause them to reconsider their support.” While a conviction may impact his campaign, legal delays make it unlikely that a decision will be made before November.
Trump has also run into problems within his own party. Some Republicans believe that he is taking the GOP down an alarming path. This has led to a split in the Republican party between traditionalists and “Trumpists.” A few Republicans, such as Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney, and Mike Pence, refused to endorse Trump, while others have continued to back him, allowing Trump to control the Republican Party. Trump's influence continues to move the GOP towards more extreme agendas and candidates. This behavior is driving away moderate voters that constitute the majority of the middle ground between Democrats and Republicans. These voters could make or break the election, especially in vital swing states.
Many Americans have also stated that Trump could be dangerous for the future of America’s democracy. During his presidency, he stated that he had “total authority” over the government and that he was immune from any civil and criminal processes. This is a very dangerous precedent. And worryingly, he is not all talk. Trump has already presented a protocol known as the Schedule F, which would allow him to fire and hire bureaucrats at will, politicizing the federal workforce. He has also threatened to remove “radical left thugs'' and prosecute politicians on the other side of the aisle.
Both candidates have plenty of flaws, leaving voters with a pessimistic outlook on the 2024 election. Despite this cynicism and the tight polling numbers, I predict Biden will emerge victorious.
One of Biden’s largest advantages over Trump is because of his stance on a very contentious policy issue: abortion and reproductive rights. KFF predicts that this issue will cause 1 in 8 female voters to lean Democrat. After the recent overturning of Roe v. Wade, abortion has become a dealbreaker for many voters. It is clear that the Republican party is also aware of this movement. Recently, Trump flipped his official stance on abortion, stating that he would not sign a national ban, leaving the decision up to the states. This has allowed him to avoid announcing an official position on the issue.
The timing of Trump's trial for his hush money criminal case also comes at an inopportune time. The current trial pertains to Trump being accused by the Manhattan District Attorney for paying a sex worker, Stormy Daniels, $130,000 to keep her quiet about an alleged affair they had a decade earlier. The prosecution asserts that Trump was a part of a conspiracy to undermine the 2016 election. During the trial, Trump is required to appear in court for four days a week for approximately eight weeks, pulling him away from the campaign trail and swing states that could make the difference in November. Moreover, the case has drained close to 76 million dollars from Trump’s campaign funds. In past elections, money has correlated with victory. Although this is not always the case, this discrepancy in finances could give Biden another small edge over Trump.
The last major factor that could affect this election is third party candidates. There is a significant possibility that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could spoil the election in some states. This, however, would not be the first time a third party candidate has spoiled an election. Ross Perot had a similar effect in the 1992 Presidential election between Bill Clinton and George H. W. Bush. In this election, Perot pulled 19 percent of the vote due to widespread dissatisfaction of both parties. Because of the current political climate, it is plausible Kennedy could have the same effect, taking essential votes from Trump or Biden. According to a study by the Washington Post, however, it is likely that RFK would pull more voters from Trump's camp - specifically in the states of Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. Although the margin is small, the slightest difference could change the outcome in these swing states. Due to the winner-take-all system, this might result in Biden winning vital votes in the electoral college.
The upcoming election leaves many voters uninspired and reflective. Although the matchup seems eerily similar to 2020, the political context is very different. Both candidates have multiple obstacles blocking their path to the 270 electoral votes required to win the presidency. With this in mind, and despite the current neck and neck polling, there are a few hindrances I believe Trump will not be able to overcome.