COP 28: Where Do We Go From Here?

Dubai. 2023. Over 100,000 delegates. 14 days. The future of the planet at stake. The question: How much will each country be willing to sacrifice? The answer: Not enough. 

As delegates from over 199 parties touched down in Dubai for the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 28), the stage was perfectly set for the biggest climate conference ever held. Leading scientists, journalists, and diplomats amassed; yet, in a world so uniquely diverse in both viewpoints and natural resources, finding compromise is not an easy task. Climate change is simultaneously the most pressing issue of our generation and one of the most difficult to solve. COP 28 represents a pivotal moment in humanity’s story—one that will determine our future as a global community and as a species. 

As the 2030 horizon becomes more visible every year, the 2015 Paris Agreement lingers in the world’s rearview mirror, a constant reminder of past promises for climate reform. The Paris Agreement ​​set one central goal for all 196 supporting parties: to restrict global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030. Although not legally binding, a signature on the agreement signified an international commitment to reducing emissions, shifting to green energy sources, and funding global environmental aid efforts. However, while the Paris Agreement marked a critical point in international climate policy, it continues to shrink in the world’s rearview mirror as we drive further and further down the road of time and political upheaval. 

With 2030 a mere six years away, COP 28 aimed to create internationally diverse committees and goals that would provide avenues for emissions reductions and international environmental aid in alignment with the Paris Agreement. At such a critical time of relative international peace between high-polluting countries such as China and the United States, COP 28 climate agreement efforts proceeded with a lesser degree of disagreement and controversy than in previous years, specifically under the Trump administration. Despite this, the conference left much to be desired regarding its language and phraseology. 

Several important agreements and goals were set forth by the COP 28 conference. Regarding international finances, a new climate finance target was set and a new system for buying and selling carbon credits (vouchers that allow the purchaser to emit a certain amount of greenhouse gasses) was implemented. Furthermore, the Global Adaptation Goal and the International Climate Aid Board created committees to both allocate pledged funds and collaborate to send aid to climate-change-affected countries in need. Finally, the Global Stocktake took inventory of each country’s recent progress and specific future goals, marking a critical step to holding countries accountable for their individual goals and targets.

Despite these achievements, for many climate change advocates, the results of the summit felt like one step forward, two steps back. Undeniable and revolutionary progress was initiated at the conference, but all progress was accompanied by the unfortunate compromise of previously defined goals and the loosening of once-stringent phraseology. With an issue as volatile as climate change, progress must be made in large bounds, not disappointingly incremental jumps. At such a critical moment in history, climate change should be placed at the forefront of policy and funding action for countries that are often simultaneously the best-resourced and biggest climate offenders. The time to fight climate change is now, yet it is impossible without the support of wealthy and powerful countries. 

The goals set and agreements made at COP 28 represent primary steps towards the reduction of global warming. However, to achieve the goals set forth in the Paris Agreement, high-polluting countries must prioritize ecosystems outside of their own—a task further complicated by the intimate relationship between the oil and gas industry and powerful politicians and individuals. Even the setting of the conference in one of the highest oil producing countries in the world (The United Arab Emirates) is demonstrative of powerful political alliances and the enticing pull of the oil and gas industry.  

The top ten hottest years on Earth since 1850 happened in the last decade. 2023 was the hottest year on record. With every tenth of a degree of global warming, sea levels rise, critically endangering global ecosystems that support life across the planet. For example, Tuvalu, an island nation in the South Pacific Ocean, created the first “digital nation” by representing all aspects of the country (physical, cultural, and governmental) in a digital metaverse, thus creating an online “digital double” of the country. In a shocking and powerful video, Tuvalu’s president stands knee-deep in crystal clear Pacific water, announcing this digital shift in preparation for the imminent total flooding of their islands as a result of rising sea levels. Once the islands are entirely underwater, the digital memorialization of Tuvalu will be forced to exist in a uniquely 21st century digital metaverse - yet another shocking adaptation as a result of humanity’s impact on global warming and climate change. 

Every year, climate change continues to exceed targets and goals to reduce global warming, placing the Earth and its inhabitants in a precarious position dangling over the cliff of no return for glacial melting and global temperature  rise. There is no time to put off climate policy. Climate change is happening now, and its devastation is already evident across the globe as ecosystems are destroyed and human civilization is irrevocably altered. 

COP 28 marked a necessary and decisive victory towards global cooperation regarding climate change. However, in order to achieve the progress necessary, there must be a marked international effort to make the large-scale changes needed to limit global emissions. Emissions must be cut by 45% by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050 in order to meet Paris Agreement and subsequent COP 28 goals. 

China produces 14 million tons of carbon emissions every year, making the country the biggest international polluter by more than double the second-highest emitting country (the United States). These numbers may seem insurmountable to reduce, but with modern technologies and the usage of scientific simulations and trend prediction (as seen in Tuvalu), it is possible for high-polluting countries such as China and the United States to reduce their emissions. 

To reach the goals set by the Paris Agreement and corroborated by COP 28, countries around the globe will need to prioritize climate legislation and make concerted efforts to drastically cut emissions. Only through stringent and radical climate policy can the necessary climate goals be met. Voting to elect officials with climate-centric platforms is the most effective way for U.S. citizens and UVA students to demonstrate their commitment to assuaging climate change-induced issues. The future of the Earth is highly dependent upon the actions of humans, and with the most pressing issue of our generation on the line, one must hope those actions are enough.