How Biden’s Foreign Policy Led to His Dropping Out of the 2024 Presidential Election
With two assassination attempts, a shocking presidential debate, Brat Summer, and a myriad of international conflicts, 2024 has been one of the most chaotic and unique election years in American history. After facing widespread criticism for his performance during the June 27th presidential debate, President Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. Biden joins the group of 12 one-term presidents, which include George H.W. Bush, Lyndon B. Johnson, and Jimmy Carter. As Biden nears the end of his term, we must ask ourselves how we got here. What has led to Biden only serving a single term?
The most obvious explanation is that Americans lost faith in his mental acuity after the debate. While age and mental perceptiveness were important factors, they were not the only ones—Biden’s foreign policy significantly influenced his dropping out. An escalating war in the Middle East, a botched-up military evacuation of Afghanistan, fighting in Ukraine, and tension with China are some crucial issues plaguing the global community and American voters. Foreign policy has played an essential role in the lack of re-elections of several one-term presidents. Biden’s single term highlights the extent to which the American people deeply invest in international relations.
Biden’s attempt to combat the Israel-Hamas war has concerned many voters. Recently, after Biden had already dropped out, Israel detonated hundreds of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon - killing at least 20 people and wounding over 450. Iran retaliated by carrying out a massive airstrike, firing 180 missiles across Israel on October 1st. The Biden Administration claims that achieving a Gaza cease-fire deal is one of Biden’s top priorities, yet this new attack further threatens any negotiations. The Israel-Hamas war has been consistently increasing in casualties, tension, and significance to American voters. A New York Times/Siena College poll from December 2023 showed that out of 1,016 registered voters, 57% disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war, whereas only 33% approved it. In that same poll, 46% of participants trusted Trump to do a better job than Biden. Despite American activists' continued protest of military aid packages sent to Israel, a Gaza cease-fire deal seems increasingly unlikely in the near future.
After the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden Administration has consistently monetarily and militarily aided Ukraine. A Pew Research Center poll from July of this year shows that around two-thirds of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents believe the U.S. has a responsibility to aid Ukraine. While 36% of Democrats believe the United States is providing the right amount of aid, 27% believe it is not enough assistance. Almost half of Republicans think the U.S. is providing too much aid, while only 18% believe the amount of aid is the correct amount. While Democrats largely favor Ukrainian aid, we must consider the moderate Republicans. Donald Trump is a far-right populist politician; thus, the majority of his current supporters will stay his supporters. Moderate Republicans needed to decide whether to vote for their party’s candidate or Biden. If they believed Biden was spending too much on Ukraine, then it is possible they would have voted for Trump. On the other hand, some Democrats think the U.S. is not doing nearly enough for Ukraine. In her article for The Conversation, Michelle Bentley states, “The reality is that Biden’s foreign policy efforts have always been largely welcome to Ukraine—but they have never [been] enough to bring about a resolution.” Biden’s aid to Ukraine affects voters on both sides for different reasons.
Other one-term presidents have faced similar struggles regarding their foreign policy and its reception by the American people. A pattern exists—some of these presidents had foreign policy success early in their terms but struggled with maintaining that success near the end. For example, President Jimmy Carter brokered the Camp David Accords between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin in September 1978. The Accords led to the first-ever peace treaty between Israel and its Arab neighbors in 1979. However, Carter’s handling of the Iranian Hostage Crisis—specifically Operation Eagle Claw, which was an attempt by the United States Armed Forces to rescue the hostages—damaged his prestige in the eyes of his voters.
Similarly, Biden also had successful foreign policy early in his term; shortly after his inauguration, Biden signed an executive order reentering the United States into the Paris Climate Accord. However, in August 2021, Biden’s military pull-out of Afghanistan ended in chaos. The Taliban marched into Kabul on August 15th, and an ISIS suicide bombing on August 26th killed 13 U.S. service members and over 170 Afghans. According to a 2021 poll by The Pew Research Center, only about 26% of those surveyed say the administration did an excellent or good job, while 42% said it did a poor job.
Though voters were concerned about President Biden’s mental acuity, especially after his performance during the June 27 debate, foreign policy was another driving force in his stepping down from reelection. The American people lost confidence in Biden’s ability to handle the numerous international conflicts plaguing our society, and as such, added to his decision. Wars, humanitarian crises, and authoritarian regimes are increasing exponentially both in number and severity. In this unprecedented time, America needs a leader with a strong foreign policy plan. Whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump wins this election, once they are in office, they must prioritize foreign policy to secure confidence in the American people and thus ensure their legacy.