Glenn Youngkin is Running for Last Place
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has been cited as a potential Republican presidential candidate, either in 2024 or some time down the road, and some actions he has taken as governor indicate a national ambition. However, Youngkin continues to poll poorly in national primary polls, and decisions he makes with a national eye have often come at the expense of the Virginians he vowed to serve for four years.
As is typical after the first midterm of a president’s administration, the out-party presidential primaries are ramping up. With Joe Biden gearing up for reelection in 2024, the Republicans are off to a mad dash with nearly as much vigor as the Democrats’ efforts to “dump Trump” in 2020. Former President Trump announced his candidacy in November, and his UN Ambassador Nikki Haley announced her candidacy in mid-February. Other prominent figures, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to explore bids for the presidency.
Another name that has appeared is one with a far lower national profile: Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who has been in office for a mere 14 months. Youngkin isn’t getting a lot of love from the public, with over 60% of national Republicans having either a negative opinion or no opinion of Youngkin, showing that he has work to do to catch up with more prominent figures. Throughout his governorship, his national ambitions have been clearly obvious to the public, occasionally at the expense of the Commonwealth he serves. Even if he ends up not running in 2024, many decisions he has made since his initial 2021 campaign scream political calculus rather than good policy.
Culture war issues, particularly over education, were the focal point of the 2021 election. Youngkin captured populist anger over the alleged instruction of critical race theory (CRT) in K-12 schools. In doing so, Youngkin was able to win statewide by 2 percent, just 12 months after Biden carried Virginia by 10 percent.
Immediately after his victory, national Republicans began touting him as a model for how Republicans would be able to win elections in the post-Trump era. The blueprint was simple: engage with culture war issues and keep the former president at arms’ length but no further. Youngkin was immediately making the rounds on right-wing media, being interviewed by Tucker Carlson two days after his victory. He had just been elected to serve as governor for four years, but his victory in a blue state gave him all the confidence in the world, and since then, his constituents have fallen down his list of priorities.
In his first act as governor, he banned the teaching of “inherently divisive concepts” such as CRT, despite the fact that it wasn’t being taught to begin with. Youngkin also established a “tip line” for Virginia parents to report indoctrination of their children, ostensibly to root out nefarious racist education practices. Again, Youngkin was addressing a problem that did not exist. Culture wars win votes, as they did in 2021, but as policy, pursuing them is a waste of time, effort, and money. Youngkin, however, was concerned about only one thing: building a strong conservative resumé that he could proudly show-and-tell on the Republican debate stage.
On the issue of abortion, Youngkin’s stances are full of glaring inconsistencies with only one constant: he adopts any stance on abortion that Republican primary voters will approve of. Youngkin has most vigorously pushed for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, but he has also floated a 20-week ban and pledged support for any ban that reaches his desk, including a full or six-week ban, similar to what is being considered in Florida. There is just one problem. No abortion ban will make it to Youngkin’s desk. With a 22-18 Democratic majority in the state Senate, he will never be able to sign an abortion ban. Thus, Youngkin will never actually have to take action, so Republicans will never be able to criticize him for passing a bill that is either too restrictive or too lenient.
The most notable aspect about the abortion issue is that any of the stances he has taken all play well in a Republican primary. A 15-week ban is the most broadly accepted position within the GOP these days. For moderate voters wary about a 15-week ban, Youngkin can point to his support for the 20-week ban, known as the “pain threshold.” He can also reiterate his pledge to sign any ban, which will surely fire up the conservative base. It is good policy for a governor to commit to one plan and advocate for it, but Youngkin is more focused on the optics than his office.
Abortion is not the only issue where Youngkin’s ambitions have gotten the best of him. In recent years, China has come front and center as perhaps America’s greatest foreign adversary. Opposing China’s authoritarian leader Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party is now a matter of bipartisan consensus. Largely among Republicans, this has created an obsession with “owning China.” This can manifest in several ways, such as legislation to ban Chinese investors and people with connections to the CCP from buying American farmland. A more recent and familiar example would be calls to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon as soon as it entered American airspace in early February.
Resisting Chinese influence here at home is broadly popular, with a 2021 poll showing that nearly 90 percent of Americans believe China is a competitor or an enemy. The same poll revealed that 63 percent of Republicans said “limiting China’s power and influence is a top priority,” a number that has surely grown in the two years since the poll.
Youngkin surely understands this, and his national ambitions have guided his hand on the issue. When the Ford Motor Company announced a joint venture with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., a Chinese firm, to create a large electric vehicle plant, Youngkin rejected efforts to land the plant in Virginia, “[characterizing] the project as a ‘front’ for the Chinese Communist Party that would raise national security concerns.” Youngkin was unable to name these national security concerns.
Youngkin’s stand against Chinese influence comes with a caveat that the man elected to serve the people of Virginia should not overlook. The construction of the plant and its ongoing maintenance would have created around 2,500 jobs, and particularly in the post-COVID economy, every job matters. Weighing the pros and cons should be fairly simple: creating jobs and stimulating the economy should be a primary concern of any governor. One plant operated by an American company that happens to be cooperating with a Chinese firm is not evidence of a CCP spy operation. The Ford plant controversy is yet another example of how Youngkin’s ambitions superseded his duties as governor.
Never have his national ambitions been more painfully visible than in the weeks running up to the 2022 midterms. Youngkin went on a cross-country tour from September to October, promoting GOP gubernatorial nominees, and exporting his iconic red vest to Georgia. For a governor in office under a year, state-hopping in support of Republicans of all ilks, from Georgia’s Brian Kemp to Arizona’s Kari Lake, shows a desire to be out on the national campaign trail, building up name ID and enthusiasm.
Virginia’s gubernatorial term limits are unique to the state, and are a further reason why the state does not appreciate it when governors abandon the people of Virginia for other endeavors. Politicians on both sides of the aisle have criticized Youngkin for prioritizing Republican candidates elsewhere over his job.
In September, Del. Dan Helmer (D-Fairfax) hit Youngkin on the issue, posting a Twitter thread of “Where’s Glenn? The Fantastic Journey,” complete with a “Where’s Waldo?” hat photoshopped onto the governor’s head. A month earlier, in August, Senate Minority Leader Tommy Norment (R-James City) voiced his wish for Youngkin to “intensify his focus on the commonwealth's issues.” If there was any doubt over Youngkin’s campaign abilities, it is justified. The candidates he endorsed went 5-for-15 in their elections last November.
Will Glenn Youngkin end up running for president? It is hard to say, and one factor complicating the 2024 race is that the Republican primary is already a two-horse race between Trump and DeSantis. Should DeSantis shockingly not run, Youngkin would clearly have a lane, but he would have to surpass many more well-known Republicans. Regardless of whether he ends up running in 2024, he wants the job. If he passes this time, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if he ran for Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Warner’s seat in 2026, just so he can keep the Senate seat warm until the next open Republican presidential primary.
Every four years, Virginia’s governor-elect swears that they will serve the Commonwealth to the best of their ability for the next four years. Youngkin has unfortunately reminded us that for some politicians, national ambitions are more important than their job. With the 2023 Virginia General Assembly elections within sight, the Delegates and Senators Virginians elect will have a chance to remind Youngkin that he has a state to govern, and it is our duty to keep an eye on the governor and elect people who will hold him to his word.