Donald Trump continues to threaten the future of the Republican Party

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It's time for the Grand Old Party (GOP) to break up with Donald Trump. Although their toxic relationship has provided an abundance of entertainment over the past few years, the longer they allow it to continue, the more ineradicable Trump's influence will become. 

After his dramatic loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, some believed that Trump was gone for good. However, the undeterred businessman has since announced that he is returning for another round in the presidential ring. His announcement leaves the Republican Party at what seems like an insoluble crossroads. They can either back Trump, risking another loss to the Democrats in the upcoming presidential election, or abandon Trump and risk losing his committed fan base for the near future.

At first glance, it seems like an impossible choice. However, when analyzing the problem long term, there is one right solution: break ties. By ensuring that Trump does not win the nomination, the GOP can start to distance themselves and patch the holes that Trump's influence has created within the party. Although he may not leave peacefully, by cleaning house now, they may be able to mend their relationship with his supporters and shift the trajectory of the party back on track.

Multiple political officials, such as Eric Levine, have stated that they believe Donald Trump is the only Republican that would not win the presidential office for the GOP. Trump has a very devoted fan base that represents a large chunk of the GOP, however, his presence also repels the moderate majority of the Republican party. This pattern was first evident in the 2020 presidential election when, as stated by the New York Post, “...he [Trump] also generated a more massive turnout for Joe Biden…They did not come to vote for Biden; they came to vote against Trump.” Trump lost to Biden because he lost the appeal of the moderate vote. In the long run, losing the moderate vote is more dangerous than the support of the extreme vote.

Moreover, the strength of Trump's influence is waning. In the most recent midterm elections of 2022, his endorsements poisoned the campaign of numerous candidates, as reported in an interview with historian David Greenberg in an article by Rutgers, “...Trump’s prominence in the news this fall hurt the Republicans, as did his influence in selecting or favoring certain GOP nominees who turned out to be weak candidates.” Instead of drawing support to these candidates, he dispelled votes. According to NBC news, some of the most prominent losses were two gubernatorial candidates, Kari Lake (AZ) and Tudor Dixon (MI) and Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz (PA). The defeat of these hand-picked candidates displays that Trump's stamp of approval is no longer invulnerable. In fact, in some cases, his presence hurt more than helped.

Despite the numerous reasons to not grant Trump the GOP nomination, there are still advocates for giving it to him in 2024. One of the most influential being Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), who believes that Trump will destroy the party on the way out, believes that Trump's influence on a majority of the Republican party is too large to lose. As summarized in a Washington Post publication, “In Graham’s telling, it’s not so much that Trump is particularly sufficient, but rather that he is necessary.” In the past, Donald Trump has threatened the creation of his own independent third party. If this threat comes to fruition, the GOP could potentially lose up to 30% of their supporters. Moreover, Trump has shown and stated that he does not care about the future of the party, as stated in the Rutgers interview with Greenberg, “He’s a man of strong will who usually ignores advice that he does anything that might betray some humility or concern for his party.” If they do not abide by his wishes, he will likely go out swinging.

Trump also holds a large dominance over members within the Republican party. There are multiple representatives, such as Sen. Marjorie Taylor Green and Sen. J.D. Vance, who are scared to cross him due to the influence he holds over their voter base. As stated by CNN, over half of Republican voters are against representatives that denounce Trump's actions, as “more than 6 in 10 (63%) of Republicans… think that the party should not be too accepting of elected officials who openly criticize Trump.” This leaves these particular members in an arduous position where, if they want to remain in office, they need to appeal to their base which means they have to support Trump. Trump's control over these members also means that his struggle for the nomination could potentially split the party. Some members will advocate for Trump’s nomination to please their base while others will fight for a new face of the party. In order to maintain the unity of the GOP, nominating Trump might be necessary.

However, despite these potential downsides, the consequences of awarding the GOP nomination are more important to consider for the long-term future of the Republican Party. The longer Trump remains an intricate part of the party, the more control he will have over its members and supporters and the further he will lead them down an irreversible extremist path. The earlier the GOP severs ties, the quicker they can rebound and appeal to their voter base without his aid. This independence would grant them the freedom to generate their own agenda that could appeal to both extreme and moderate voters simultaneously. The results of the 2022 midterm demonstrated that Trump's influence will continue to move the GOP to more extreme agendas and candidates, driving away the moderate voters that constitute the majority of the swing vote between Democrats and Republicans. If the GOP wants to gain a majority in Congress or hold presidential office again, they require the support of the moderate vote and Trump's influence is hindering their ability to secure it.

In regards to Trump's fiery exit, his threats toward the GOP may be intimidating but they are unlikely to ever materialize. This is not the first time he has presaged the creation of his own third party. He wielded this same threat in 2015, 2016, and again in 2021, but never once has fully carried it out. Historically, establishing and maintaining an independent third party has proved extremely difficult. Theodore Roosevelt attempted this exact undertaking by founding the Bull Moose Party, after losing the Republican nomination to William Taft in 1912. The creation of the party was detrimental to Taft's 1912 reelection campaign, taking about half of his votes, however their presence did not last long. The Bull Moose Party dissolved a few years later and the voters returned to the Republican Party. Maintaining the Bull Moose Party was also a large financial and time consuming burden that Roosevelt was unable to sustain. It is likely Trump would have the same issues as well if he were to establish his own party. This exhibits that although Trump's threat of a third party is very possible, it would only have short term effects. Moreover, the Republican party has never attempted to appeal to his base without him. The Republican platform still could satisfy their ideals, and by splitting with Trump before the primary, they have more time to repair this relationship before the general election.

Trump’s attempts to gain the GOP nomination need to be stifled. The main candidate that has the highest chance of defeating him is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. If the GOP wants to take control of their party again, they need to support DeSantis and ensure his victory. Otherwise, the Republican party will continue down a Trump-riddled path that leads toward extremism and will exponentiate their recovery time when Trump inevitably leaves or falls out of popularity.