Do Democrats Have a Prayer in the House?

If you’re stuck figuring out how to judge Democrats’ chances in the 2022 midterms, think of it this way. You’re flipping a coin, and you want it to land on heads twice in a row. You wouldn’t bet on it, but it’s a very reasonable result. Democrats find themselves facing this outlook with regards to maintaining control of the House of Representatives this year. While the race for control of the Senate is also tight, I’ll be focusing specifically on the House.

Democrats rode a “blue wave” into power in 2018, decisively taking control of the House of Representatives in Donald Trump’s first and only midterm election. Grassroots progressive energy mobilized liberal voters in safe Democratic districts and candidates all over the country won over an electorate furious at President Trump’s perceived extremist policies and unacceptable behavior.

Entering this year’s midterm cycle, significantly more House Democrats have retired than House Republicans, a disadvantage the GOP suffered in 2018. The Republican victory in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election indicated a Republican-leaning political environment. Midterms are seldom kind to the president’s party, with all but two midterms since World War II resulting in a loss of seats in the House for that party. Democrats now hold the presidency, traditionally a harbinger of poor midterm results. In particular, the current Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden, is a notably unpopular president, earning approval ratings in the low 40s. These factors combined to make Republicans a lock to regain control of the House for most of 2021 and into early 2022. 

In fact, from November 2021 until August 2022, Republicans led generic ballot polling, which asks voters which party they would support in an election without reference to specific candidates. At their highest, FiveThirtyEight projected a House breakdown of 238-197 in favor of the GOP, a larger majority than the Democrats won in 2018, a blue wave year.

However, in May, the impending Supreme Court decision of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization leaked, revealing the imminent overturning of Roe v. Wade and the end of constitutional protection for abortion. Abortion, long a hot-button issue for Democrats and Republicans alike, instantly became a central issue for the 2022 election. Republicans, who had previously been overperforming in special elections in the past year, were suddenly forced to go on the defensive. A strong summer for Democrats, which involved a slight resurgence of Biden’s approval ratings, the passage of several high-profile bills, including the $700B Inflation Reduction Act, the assassination of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Republicans nominating weak candidates in high-profile House and Senate races, had Democratic chances looking up leaving August.

Suddenly, there were mumblings of whether 2022 would be another 1998 or 2002. Those midterm elections took place under extraordinary circumstances. In 1998, Americans viewed the Republican impeachment process against Bill Clinton as a partisan political mission and rebuked the GOP. In 2002, George W. Bush’s approval ratings were still through the roof following his response to the 9/11 terrorist attacks, leading to a stronger-than-usual midterm performance for Republicans. 

With such a precedent in mind, a repeat of those years was certainly a conceivable outcome. In early August, Kansas voters, traditionally very conservative, crushed an anti-abortion ballot question. Democrats, particularly President Biden, were fired up by this change of fortune. Somewhat ironically, the biggest Democratic fear of the past 49 years, the overturning of Roe, represented a nearly unthinkable electoral opportunity.

Special elections since the June 24th Supreme Court decision have shown consistent Democratic overperformance, including upset victories in a suburban New York district and the at-large district of Alaska. Furthermore, polling around the House was improving for Democrats. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker has increased chances of Democratic control from 12% in June to a high of 32% on October 1st. Republicans faltering in critical seats has also bolstered Democratic optimism, with a notable example being Ohio’s 9th Congressional District. In a district that voted for Trump by 2.8% in 2020, Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur was supposed to lose to far-right Republican JR Majewski. Majewski, however, has come under fire for “misrepresent[ing] key elements of his Air Force service”. Because of the backlash against Majewski, Republicans have stopped spending ad money in the district and essentially conceded the race to Kaptur.

As time has passed, a stabilization of Biden’s numbers and bad Senate polls for Democrats have muddied the waters. After an active summer of campaigning, the President has been sheltered recently from the public eye, particularly in the wake of an embarrassing gaffe in which Biden appeared to ask where a dead Congresswoman was. Additionally, the decreases in gas prices Biden had touted over the summer have slowed, and recent bad inflation reports have rocked the stock market.

A shift in momentum back towards Republicans was to be expected following a good Democratic summer. Democratic enthusiasm over the abortion issue may be subsiding, as well, with polling indicating that abortion has steadily lost ground as a key issue since July. Republicans, always favored to regain the House, have the momentum on their side in the final sprint, even though Democratic control of the House still appears to be within reach.

In the hellscape that is Washington, D.C. politics, within reach is never enough. Biden, as a mistake-prone president that has stayed out of the limelight, will not be the figure winning Democrats their tight races this year. This means that Democrats have become increasingly paranoid of the specter of Republican control of either house of Congress. For example, In a span under three weeks back in May—before I unsubscribed—Nancy Pelosi sent me *twenty* emails warning me of “the dangerous agenda of Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy.”

The enthusiasm and concern is visibly present on the Democratic side, but now the question remains: how can Democrats boost their chances? Running on one’s own record is an easy thing to do in the Senate, and that is one of areas in which Democrats outpace Republicans in those elections. The House is different, though. For incumbent Democrats, proudly framing their votes for major accomplishments such as the November 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act or the aforementioned Inflation Reduction Act is a natural measure to attract support.

Longtime Democratic Representative Tom O’Halleran of Arizona, an at-risk incumbent this cycle, recently tweeted out a graphic which said “449 bills cosponsored. 85% were bipartisan.” The O’Halleran strategy is a good one, particularly for representatives with an established history. Another vulnerable Democrat named Tom, New Jersey’s Tom Malinowski, promoted an op-ed written by a lifelong Republican endorsing Malinowski.

Not every Democrat can take advantage of the Tom strategy. Many Democrats either don’t have much of a record to run on, don’t have established bipartisan bona fides, or both. Candidates are thus forced to rely on issue-based messaging and relentlessly attacking their opponents, which may make for good soundbites, but unfortunately, soundbites don’t win elections. 

Rhode Island’s Seth Magaziner, a relative unknown whose highest office is state General Treasurer, is trailing Republican Allan Fung in a heavily blue district. Magaziner’s campaign has resorted to blanket statements about the issues, throwing subtle jabs at Fung on topics such as abortion and gun control. These issues play well with the liberal Rhode Island electorate, so Magaziner will have to hope the partisan imbalance drags him across the finish line.

Democrats got themselves into a real pickle in Oregon by nominating left-wing candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner over moderate incumbent Kurt Schrader. Schrader was a prominent Democratic lawmaker who kept on winning in a closely divided district, but McLeod-Skinner, a first-time political candidate, and Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer are neck-and-neck.

As a result, McLeod-Skinner has turned to the strategy that would seem most natural to Democrats: the strategy of attacking the opponents as too extreme. It’s a legitimate concern, as President Trump has stayed very close to the public eye, and Chavez-DeRemer has refused to acknowledge Biden’s victory in 2020. Admittedly, McLeod-Skinner may be a strange candidate to put forward this anti-extremist strategy, as she has faced allegations of supporting the “defund the police” movement, though she has pushed back.

The efforts demonstrated by the Toms, O’Halleran and Malinowski, provide Democrats with their best chances if they want to keep control. The two of them were left for dead following redistricting, and yet are putting up strong fights, while McLeod-Skinner and Magaziner could be fumbling winnable races. For candidates not blessed with the power of the incumbency, pushing back against Republican extremism may be the next best option, considering Trump’s not-so-secret secret reelection bid overshadowing the political world.

Polls in the Trump era where Trump has not been on the ballot himself have been largely accurate, and these polls indicate a GOP takeover by a small margin. It appears that is the likeliest scenario, with Biden’s weakness as presiding president and bad economic news providing juice for Republicans late in the cycle. Democrats, however, most certainly have a prayer. It’s simply on them to improve their chances.