The Virginia Moment

Image Credit: Annie Zhu

Virginia is subject to the most striking political ideology shift a state has seen in the 21st century, and pundits are on the edge of their seats. The Commonwealth has retired its title as a swing state after the country's recent presidential election, but this quickly emerging transformation should not be claimed as a sigh of relief for Virginia Democrats just yet. Formerly a hotly contested state in 2012, Virginia was deemed a safe bet for Joe Biden on the night of the presidential election in 2020, having been called only thirty-one minutes after its polls closed with a final 10.2 percent lead. University of Virginia political scientist Dustin Cable predicted the rising popularity of Democratic candidates in 2012, noting the power dynamic shift in voting demographics. Now, Virginia's shift toward the left has energized minority communities to vote and run for office at a rate that the state has never witnessed before. 

After Donald Trump’s election, the "Blue Wave" became increasingly potent in state elections. As of 2019, Democrats occupied the Executive Mansion and held the majority in both chambers of the General Assembly for the first time in two decades. This trifecta was monumental for Virginians of color, who have been at the forefront of progressive policy advocacy. In the last two years, the state legislature ratified the Equal Rights Amendment, abolished the death penalty, legalized marijuana, and passed historic gun safety legislation. Now, as Governor Ralph Northam's term awaits its end, a diverse array of candidates has stepped up to the plate to lead Virginia. However, the question remains whether Virginia's gubernatorial race will take advantage of this traction to establish a progressive precedent for future statewide and nationwide political cycles. Both the Democratic, Republican, and third-party primaries illuminate the national divide not only between opposing parties but within the parties' own establishment ideology. 

The United States has never elected a Black female governor, but Virginia could change that. The saturation of white men across all levels of government has been a barrier to transformative and sustainable legislation that works for all Americans. As a result, Black women have always been at the forefront of political change in our nation's history regardless of the formal and informal barriers they have faced in electoral politics. In 2018, candidate Stacey Abrams lost Georgia’s gubernatorial election due to widespread voter suppression evident across the state. Her trailblazing campaign instigated a deeply overdue conversation about the dimensions of race and gender in statewide leadership. Despite her disappointing loss, there has been a surge of Black women running for and being elected into office as a result of the grassroots push to uplift minority women into decision-making bodies. Currently, with four Black women running across the three Virginia gubernatorial primaries this June, Virginia has the chance to elect a candidate who will change the country’s normative paradigms. Of the four candidates, all are running on a spectrum of platforms. The Democratic ticket is the most contentious, however, as Virginia is most likely to go blue again.

On the Democratic ballot, former Delegate Jennifer Carroll-Foy and State Senator Jennifer McClellan are two of the top contenders. Both candidates have received a significant amount of recognition and support on the national stage because of their progressive policy agendas and popularity within Virginia’s Democratic Party. Carroll-Foy is the former delegate to Virginia’s 2nd House District. Her hometown is the city of Petersburg—one of the most impoverished cities in Virginia. She is a Virginia Military Institute alumnus (one of the first few women to graduate in the institution’s history), a public defender, and a mother of two twin boys. Her policy interests are worker’s rights, criminal justice, and gender equality. One of her landmark policy successes was leading the movement towards ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment in Virginia. 

Senator Jennifer McClellan announced her run for Governor shortly after Carroll-Foy. After graduating from the University of Virginia Law School, Senator McClellan practiced as a corporate lawyer for Verizon for several years. She has served in the state legislature for fourteen years. She is an advocate for environmental justice, sponsoring the Virginia Clean Economy Act, and a health care system that works for all Virginians. Both Carroll-Foy and McClellan have been outspoken about the need for Virginia and the United States to elect its first Black female governor and both believe that they are the best fit for the job. It is clear that Carroll-Foy and Senator McClellan are two qualified candidates with lived experiences that can relate to many underserved communities across the state. But the greatest barrier in this election is actually the Democratic Party establishment itself. 

Former Governor of Virginia Terry McAullife, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, and Delegate Lee J. Carter are the three men on the Democratic ballot. Among these three men, the most likely winner of the Democratic nomination is McAullife because he has the most experience, establishment support, and funding. McAullife is endorsed by elite party members like Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton, as he has maintained close ties with them through his lengthy career. He also has the advantage of fundraising the most money, upwards of $6.1 million in the last year. A close second is Carroll-Foy, raising $1.9 million. According to previous trends, it is almost certain that Virginia will elect a Democratic governor, but the uncertainty arises as to whether it will be someone fresh and progressive or a moderate who falls in line with the norm. On the one hand, Carroll-Foy and Senator McClellan have notable local support from party members and grassroots allegiance. Organizations like Her Excellency 2021 are committed to equal opportunity and women's equality through the Democratic party, organizing voters around both Carroll-Foy and McClellan. On the other hand, McAuliffe has the resources and the name recognition across the Democratic Party. After all, isn’t that what political elections have become all about?

The unfortunate truth is McAuliffe has the greatest chance of winning the nomination this June. We have to remind ourselves that even though Virginia is solidly blue in national and regional elections and has made significant strides in state policy, this kind of momentum does not necessarily translate into statewide elections, especially one of this nature, for two main reasons. The first reason is statewide voter turnout is low. Though much higher than previous years, only 40 percent of Virginian voters participated in the last statewide election in 2019. Despite the higher numbers among emerging minority voters, 40 percent is still well below a passing grade. The second reason is innovative state policy is a byproduct of regionally substantive representation. An election of a larger scale warrants a different perspective regarding the direction of the state at-large. It is daunting to think about, and it might jade the way Virginians vote in June.

Virginia is about to take its most difficult test. This upcoming election has the potential to serve as a definitive starting point to repair the past and revitalize the future of electoral politics in Virginia. The gubernatorial primaries beg the question: Will Virginia stay loyal to the Old Dominion way or will it test new avenues to meet its citizens’ demands? Nevertheless, constituents are tired of watered-down legislation and false promises. The fate of progressive reform and representation lies in the hands of the Virginian voters. Are you prepared to demand a better future?