https://nara.getarchive.net/media/us-sen-sherrod-brown-visits-the-121st-air-refueling-7f1eb1
Edited by Alex Elstrodt, Samantha Ruenzi, Rishi Chandra, Amelia Cantwell, & Owen Andrews
Like most midterm election cycles, the incumbent party seems poised to lose ground this November. Multiple states, in particular, have become competitive this election cycle in ways that were not previously possible for Democrats to win, such as Ohio, Texas, and Iowa. These new competitive races create the opportunity for “split-ticketing,” the practice of voting for two different parties for statewide races. In recent years, this phenomenon has seemed to have hit historic lows. In 2022, for instance, only six states simultaneously elected a US senator from one party and their governor from another party (Nevada, Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgia, Vermont, and New Hampshire).
Historically, states will only break from typical voting patterns when it comes to state government, meaning gubernatorial elections are more likely to differ from presidential or congressional results. For example, New Hampshire has consistently elected Democratic senators and voted for Democratic presidential candidates since 2004, yet they have had Republican governors since 2016. In fact, New Hampshire’s Senate seat flipped blue, while the governor’s mansion flipped red in the same cycle. That begs the question: which states will deviate from typical norms and split their tickets? Through my analysis, I’ve found five of the most likely states to feel a few different ways at the ballot box, and what took them to this point. Additionally, using ratings from The Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, along with various polls, I have constructed ratings for each race, with lean being most certain, followed by tilt, and tossup.
Georgia
Senate Race - Lean Democrat, Governor’s Race - Tossup
Georgia continues to be a major battleground this cycle, as it has been over the past decade. After narrowly securing victory in 2020, incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff is positioned to win reelection against MAGA-faithful Congressman Mike Collins. With polls consistently showing a five- to nine-point lead, Ossoff’s incumbency and popular anti-corruption legislative record give him a strong cushion over Collins, who is mired in scandal over ethics investigations.
The real competition in Georgia lies in its gubernatorial election. Former Democratic Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces off against Republican billionaire healthcare mogul Rick Jackson. While Jackson’s lack of governmental experience and political training may be a slight liability, he narrowly won the Republican primary against Lt. Governor Burt Jones after a runoff. Since then, he’s voiced concerns about Bottoms’s record as mayor, which was clouded by issues regarding the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests and her controversial decision not to run for a second term. Bottoms’s biggest appeal centers on reversing Governor Brian Kemp’s decision to reject Medicaid expansion, a policy Jackson supported. Currently, Jackson has a narrow lead in most polls, although numbers have been far less consistent than in the Senate race. This seems like the best opportunity since 1998 for Democrats to win the Georgia governorship, even if Bottoms has a narrow advantage. If Jackson can magnify public concerns about Bottoms’s record, the Peach State just may split its ticket, much like it did four years ago.
Alaska
Senate Race - Tilt Democrat, Governor’s Race - Tossup
Alaska is an odd state when it comes to its electoral system. First, it employs a late, “jungle primary” method, in which the top four candidates, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a ranked-choice competition in the general election. The Senate election’s primary strongly indicated Democratic performance in the state, with former US Representative Mary Peltola receiving just under fifty percent of the vote. Incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, who faced controversy after his attempt to get someone of his namesake removed from the ballot, received only about forty-one percent of the vote. Peltola has been one of Alaska’s more historically successful Democratic politicians and hopes to use her unique electoral experience to secure a crucial Senate win. She is trying to leverage Sullivan’s ties to Trump, along with the oil crisis's unique impact on Alaska's economy, to gain support from Alaskans.
For Alaska’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Thompkins pulled off a major upset by topping the entire field, with fellow Democrat Tom Begich and two Republicans finishing behind him. Despite the ranked-choice system used in the general election, Begich withdrew after the primary, leaving the next-highest-placing candidate, another Republican, to take his place on the ballot. With Republicans and Democrats both dealing with name-recognition issues for their candidates, and polling historically inconsistent in Alaska, this race looks like one of the closest tossups in the nation for the gubernatorial seat.
Texas
Senate Race - Tilt Democrat, Governor’s Race - Lean Republican
Texas’s Senate race has easily been one of the most televised this cycle. With both parties having competitive primaries, the two nominees are State Representative James Talarico for the Democrats and Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Republicans. Talarico, who’s been leveraging an unconventional faith-rooted liberalism, has been able to easily paint Paxton, who primaried long-time incumbent John Cornyn at the behest of Donald Trump, as extremely corrupt due to his various scandals and impeachment by the Texas legislature. With about a month left until Election Day, polls give Talarico a narrow but consistent lead.
Incumbent twelve-year Governor Greg Abbott has never faced much opposition in his reelection campaigns, winning by over ten percent each time. However, this election is likely going to be his toughest challenge yet. His opponent, State Representative Gina Hinojosa, has successfully tied herself to Talarico’s wave. While polls indicate Abbott’s electoral success is unlikely to end this term, Texas voters appear to be growing less comfortable with the Governor after his long tenure. If Democrats can continue their success with Hispanic voters this cycle, Abbott’s comfortability may be in jeopardy.
Ohio
Senate Race - Tilt Democrat, Governor’s Race - Tossup.
After being defeated for another term in 2024, former Democratic US Senator Sherrod Brown is back to reclaim a Senate spot in the special election to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance. Because of his name recognition and long-time incumbency, Brown is performing quite well compared to a typical Democrat in Ohio, which has shifted far to the right from its previous era as a swing state. By comparison, the current senator, John Husted, is far less well-known or popular than Brown. With the Republican Party hemorrhaging support nationwide and Brown enjoying strong support in the Buckeye State, polls indicate a narrow Democratic victory.
The governor’s race seems to have the reverse circumstances, with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy being the Republican candidate, facing off against the relatively unknown public health official Amy Acton. While Vivek’s identity is more national than Ohio-centric, he still has name recognition that Acton may not. Additionally, polls have been far less consistent than those of the Senate race. Ohio hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in twenty years, and has become far more conservative since then. With such a structural advantage for Republicans, it’s unclear who can actually pull of the victory in November..
Iowa
Senate Race - Tilt Republican, Governor’s Race - Lean Democrat
Iowa is by far the most likely split-ticket state this cycle. After two-term incumbent, Joni Ernst, decided not to seek reelection due to mounting unpopularity, US Representative Ashley Hinson took her place. Hinson, who hails from Iowa’s relatively moderate second district, secured much of the Republican Party apparatus, including an endorsement from President Trump. Her opponent, former Paralympian and State Representative Josh Turek, has been performing rather well for a state that, much like Ohio, has become significantly more conservative in the past decade. Despite this, he doesn’t seem to be outperforming the structural disadvantage Democrats have faced in Iowa recently.
The governor’s race, however, is an example of having the right person for the right place. State auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, has been polling with a very solid lead since the primary. In said primary, outsider Zach Lahn defeated Trump-endorsed Randy Feenstra in a major upset. Lahn's lack of recognition has been a major asset for the Sand campaign, which has painted him as an opportunist with more ties to Kansas than Iowa. Sand has been particularly intentional in separating himself from the Democratic Party establishment by claiming that “new leadership” is needed, while also dismissing a potential endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris. In a state that has recently been rejecting the Democratic Party by very large margins, creating an individual identity separate from the national party, as a Democrat in particular, may be the best way to break the norms within the electorate.
This cycle creates a unique opportunity to see how strong the political structures are across the country. The fact that the states and races with the highest likelihood of flipping are a result of strong political recruiting and candidate selection shows that the message itself matters only to an extent. In a state like Texas, for instance, James Talarico and Gina Hinojosa have very similar policy viewpoints, but Talarico’s faith-based, soft, unique approach seems to be putting him over the edge. Because midterm turnout tends to be lower than in presidential election years, you often see a higher-education voter base vote, meaning each candidate’s merits are considered in a vacuum rather than in relation to a party line. The mood of American politics focuses far more on how a platform is delivered than on its actual content. Perhaps a strong performance of split tickets this cycle could indicate a rebounding nuance within the American electorate; something that could prove very important in reforming the rampant divisiveness seen in American politics currently.