https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/53067465959
Edited by Caroline Crowley, Ryan McKenzie, Amelia Cantwell, & Owen Andrews
Since the Reagan Administration, the economy has been the one issue voters have seemingly trusted the GOP to pull through on. In January, 72 percent of surveyed Republicans said the economy was improving. Now, that number has dwindled to 29 percent. The economy was the primary issue that propelled Donald Trump to both of his consequential terms as president. However, over the course of the past year, that advantage has seemingly vanished. The war with Iran costs $250 million per day. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7 percent, and the Federal Reserve introduced its first interest rate hike in three years, which will put further pressure on consumers.
Contrary to President Trump’s assertions, the economy is, in fact, not booming. Democrats have seen this as an opportunity to regroup and reshape the narrative around the economy, focusing on comprehensive affordability messaging over ideological ones. Accompanied by increasing distrust in the GOP's economic policies, the Democrats' targeted message may convince voters to put their confidence in them to improve the economy, influencing Democratic outcomes in the midterm elections.
Nearly every significant economic indicator is now working against Republicans, and voters are taking notice. Consumer prices are the biggest obstacle for the GOP: as of June 2026, consumer prices rose by 3.5 percent year-to-date. New to this election cycle is the US-Iran war, which has caused the stock market to see-saw with each purported peace resolution followed by each novel act of aggression. The highest-profile American casualty, however, is the price of oil. The national average price of gasoline in early September hovered around $4.50 a gallon, painfully above the pre-war $2.98 a gallon. Furthermore, the national debt reached a record high of $40 trillion, around 126 percent of the US GDP this year. While not uniquely caused by Republicans, this high-water mark happened under their joint executive and legislative control, and voters will attribute blame accordingly.
Even beyond voters, Republican policymakers have begun to butt heads with each other over economic strategy, undermining confidence that the GOP has a unified economic plan. President Trump recently made a bold pledge to give every U.S. adult $5,000 if Republicans win the midterm election. Republican Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) cautioned that it would be “extraordinarily costly,” while Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) argued that the $5,000 payout should be modified as a tax rebate for working Americans only.
Another source of tension within the GOP comes from the executive branch’s interventions in the economy. For instance, President Trump allowed the import of over 300,000 metric tons of foreign beef to reduce ground beef prices at grocery stores, much to the dismay of Republican senators from farm and ranching states threatened by a shift to imported meat. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Bessent’s interventions in the bond market to lower yields and consumer borrowing costs have miscarried as 10-year Treasury yields reach 19-year highs. Which means higher monthly payments for mortgages, student loans and other forms of borrowing. Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) expressed his skepticism by saying that “the consumer suffers” with “government micromanage[ment of] the economy,” and demeaned Trump's interventions as “gimmicks.” Despite being their supposed specialty, the GOP is increasingly divided over current economic policy, impeding the power and appeal of the majority legislative party at a time when the Democrats are on the Republicans' heels.
The GOP’s failure to secure voters’ trust on the economy has provided a window of opportunity for a new generation of Democrat challengers, who are better at landing the message of affordability with voters. Abdul El-Sayed (MI Senate), Rob Sand (IA Governor), and James Talarico (TX Senate) are candidates in three different states running on a similar message: the cost of living eclipses ideology. El-Sayed has built his Michigan Senate campaign on affordability and persistently bashing the GOP over rising costs. El-Sayed directly blamed recent price spikes on Trump’s war in Iran while accusing his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers, of courting big-oil donors while Michiganders are struggling to pay at the pump. El-Sayed’s platform centers on banning corporate money from elections, stronger anti-monopoly enforcement, ending corporate tax breaks, and taking a targeted approach to tariffs. These economic policies focused on bringing consumer prices down have been gaining traction with voters both in and outside of Michigan as well as across the political aisle, illustrating the prowess of the Democrats' new economic messaging.
Rob Sand is Iowa’s sitting state auditor and has run his campaign instead on affordability statistics, consistently touting Iowa’s rank as 48th in the nation for personal income growth to argue that seemingly healthier budget numbers aren’t translating into relief for everyday Iowans, but instead for the wealthy. Sand’s “Truer, Better Agenda” includes proposals to ban landlords from using AI algorithms to price-fix rent and to make down-payment assistance for first-time homebuyers interest-free. These policies point specifically to the cost of living crisis, and Sand’s ability to convince voters through his credibility as an auditor has bode well for him. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia rates the Iowan Gubernatorial race as “ Leans D,” showing Sand’s strategy has been taken up by voters.
Jon Ossoff’s campaign against Mike Collins in Georgia heavily focuses on the affordability crisis and repeatedly bashes economic legislation pushed through the Senate by Donald Trump such as the Big, Beautiful Bill. Furthermore, Ossoff criticizes Trump’s sweeping tariffs arguing that the tariffs amount to hefty taxes on consumers that damage the Georgian economy. Ossoff also proposed tax cuts and incentives on small businesses and farmers to ease the burden of the economic crisis. As a sitting senator, Ossoff points to his six-year record where he has launched an investigation into out-of-state large corporations buying Georgia land in bulk and his staunch support for the Affordable Care Act. Both issues seek to ease housing and healthcare costs in Georgia. Ossoff leads Mike Collins by seven points, well outside the margin of error, giving him some of the strongest polling numbers in the Senate midterms.Ossoff’s campaign illustrates that a sitting senator running for reelection can piggyback on strong affordability messaging to keep his seat.
Democratic challengers such as these have the potential to make big waves and flip congressional and gubernatorial seats by filling the economic gap once dominated by trust in the GOP. While still far from holding strong economic authority, Democrats have improved their messaging and prospects with a positive focus on affordability rather than simply berating Donald Trump. Democratic policies will come with their own costs and flaws deserving of scrutiny beyond simply acting as an alternative to the current establishment. The cost-benefit analysis of a policy holds regardless of who it is championed by. Come November, voters across the United States will deliver the verdict on whether the Republican Party can still deliver on economic issues or if the congressional reins should be passed on to the Democrats, who seem to be up for the challenge.