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Edited by: Arya Kumar, Rishi Chandra, Amelia Cantwell, Owen Andrews
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel coordinated a military operation against Iran that resulted in over 555 casualties on the first day of the military excursion (as reported by Iranian sources). This series of airstrikes on day one killed several key Iranian leaders, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Operation Epic Fury, as it was dubbed, aimed to obliterate Iran’s military capabilities and wipe out the potential for the nation to develop a nuclear arsenal. In a March 10, 2026, press briefing, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth highlighted the operation’s objectives as destroying Iran’s missiles, navy, and any future nuclear capabilities. While this appears to be the official position of the administration, President Trump has stated in a post on Truth Social that he wants “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and to “MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN.” President Trump’s statements on Truth Social suggest that the administration’s position is not solely to take out military capabilities but to conduct regime change in Iran. The administration has contradicted itself many times on the goal and progress of this military operation. However, these phrases that Trump posted on Truth Social evoke his infamous campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again,” suggesting that Trump wants to tie his actions in Iran to his vision for America. The president’s statements introduce the idea that the United States must pursue Iranian regime change for the US to prosper, which is a massive shift from Trump’s original campaign promises.
On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump outlined specific “America First” policies that the GOP believed would bring America back to its "Golden Age,” including an end to “endless foreign wars” as a way to promote his “America First” agenda. In the 2024 GOP platform, adopted at the Milwaukee convention, the Republican Party emphasized “end[ing] the global chaos” and “restoring peace,” signaling that the GOP position was against war. The official platform continues to assert that foreign involvement and global chaos must end in order to achieve economic prosperity and lower inflation. On the economy, the platform states that the GOP will achieve “below record lows” in inflation and gas prices seen in the first Trump administration, which were metrics that were key to Trump's victory in the presidential election. Trump gained 56% of voters who prioritized foreign policy in addition to 81% of voters who predominantly focused on the economy. Trump promised that if reelected, he would rebuild the relationships he claimed the Biden administration crushed. However, his recent military actions in Iran do the complete opposite. The ultimate advertised goals of the second Trump administration were to make America energy dominant and economically prosperous, as well as to put an end to global conflicts, but none of these promises have been actualized through Operation Epic Fury. This wave of attacks and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz destabilized the region, disrupted world trade markets, shocked the crude oil market, and thrust the world into the global chaos warned against in the platform.
The operation violates the very clear campaign promise to settle global tensions. The GOP campaign platform states that they will “PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST.” This message of Middle Eastern peace was abandoned with the military operation initiated by Israeli and US forces, and surrounding Middle Eastern nations are now on high alert as Iranian forces have initiated retaliatory attacks. The actions have not only destabilized the region, but they have also increased the risk for a terror attack on American soil. Since the operation has begun, there have been instances of acts of terrorism by silently radicalized individuals. One instance of these attacks is the terror attack carried out on a Michigan synagogue that was inspired by the Iran-sponsored Hezbollah terror group. This also brings uncertainty over how much influence Iran has around the world and over their military capabilities. On March 20, Iranian forces initiated a missile launch on a UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean, which suggests that Iran has the capabilities to hit central Europe with a missile. The increased threat on the home front, coupled with the uncertainty of how far Iranian missiles can reach, has pushed much of the world into a high-alert mode.
All of these factors have increased the global chaos that President Trump had vowed to end. While some argued that the operation would make the world safer by destroying the Iranian regime, the operation’s success is not guaranteed, and the US does not have a great track record with successfully executing regime change and creating stable nation-states. Taking the global-stability-campaign promise out of the equation, there are still multiple areas that have not been actualized, and the military operation does not seek to make progress on these fronts.
One of the promises made by the Trump campaign was to lower gas and energy prices. Since the military operation in Iran, crude oil prices have risen from $67.03 on February 27 to $111.54 on April 2. On the day of the military operation, crude oil prices were declining. However, the Iranian navy’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a direct result of the operation, caused prices to increase by roughly 60%. This rise in oil prices affects many economic indicators, including gas prices, inflation, and energy prices. The GOP stated in its platform that “war breeds inflation, while geopolitical stability brings price stability.” The Trump administration's failure to achieve these promises has left them vulnerable to criticism from within their own party.
This conflict has implications for not just the Trump administration but the wider GOP. With the MAGA base crumbling since recent posts from President Trump on Truth Social, the coalition that Trump has spent over a decade curating is splintering heading into the consequential 2026 midterm elections. This makes way for a new political landscape where Trump’s endorsement does not hold the same weight within the party as it once did. Recent elections have signaled that the MAGA movement is losing its momentum. In Marjorie Taylor Greene’s congressional district, the special election to fill this seat saw the largest percentage swing from Republican to Democrat in this cycle so far. In this district, President Trump had a margin of victory of 37 percentage points, and the special election saw the Republican candidate hold the district with 12 percentage points. This signals that the Republican strongholds are at risk this midterm season. These election results could be a consequence of the lowest approval rating for President Trump in his second term, headlined by Americans' concern for inflation and the state of the economy. This nationwide dissatisfaction with the Trump administration's actions is cause for concern for Republican candidates in this election cycle.
The Iran conflict runs counter to the goals outlined in the 2024 presidential election. This action by the Trump administration completely disregards what voters elected him to do. It is a slap in the face to voters who have stood by him in times when it would have been easier to rebuke his candidacy. It weakens the Republicans' coalition of voters heading into the midterm elections. This military action leaves the nation more vulnerable and weakened, while its citizens were promised the “golden age” of America under Trump’s leadership.