Virginia recently held elections for every seat in the General Assembly and many local positions. Virginia is one of the few states that holds major elections in odd-numbered years. Notably, Virginia also elects its governor in odd years, most recently in 2021. Originally, the office of Governor was not an elected position. From the first state constitution in 1776 until 1851, the legislature appointed governors to three-year terms. In 1851, a new constitution was written which made the offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General publicly elected positions with terms of four years. Such elections continued over the following decade, with state elections occurring the year before presidential elections. The Civil War interrupted this, and once Virginia was fully back on its feet in 1869, state elections resumed, occurring the year before presidential elections. Virginia has held its elections in off-years ever since, and it has always been a notable quirk of the state. The consequences of the odd election cycle do not justify the massive logistical undertaking required to “fix” the calendar.

Even-numbered years being election years is a known fact of life in the United States. Every year divisible by four holds a presidential election, and the aptly named “midterm” Congressional elections are held two years into that four-year term. The presidency is the most publicly visible office, for obvious reasons: it is the only nationwide elected position. As such, presidential election years often have very high turnout, meaning that a large proportion of registered voters actually vote in the election. Every four-year cycle, midterm elections will generally have the second-highest turnout, as high-profile federal offices are up for grabs. As a result, the odd-numbered years (known as off-years, and in the case of years immediately preceding a presidential election, off-off-years) tend to be forgotten. Only two states, Virginia and New Jersey, hold gubernatorial elections in years following presidential elections. Elections with a lower voter turnout give a less accurate depiction of the will of the electorate. Voters should know of upcoming elections; we always have them in Virginia. If they choose not to vote, they are removing themselves from the electoral equation, which is a bad thing regardless of how they would have voted, since democracy is strongest when more people vote.

A common line of arguments against off-year elections center around race. Some argue that even if the original implementation of off-year elections did not have a racist origin, their continuation is racist. The main argument here is that a natural fact of off-year elections is lower voter turnout, and lower general turnout tends to correlate with disproportionately lower turnout among voters of color, and higher turnout among white voters. Allowing elections that disadvantage voters of color is a policy failure, and moving elections to standard in-cycle years would diminish this effect and allow voters of color to be better represented. Analysis by the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) showed that voter turnout decreased significantly more among voters of color than white voters in off years, with particularly worse turnout among Hispanic and Asian voters.

The truth is there is nothing unique about off-year elections that make them more difficult to vote in. The problem creating lower turnout among these racial groups is likely a failure of politicians in conducting community outreach. Elections work exactly the same in off-years as they do in federal years. There are no voter restrictions that kick in only in off-years. For a variety of reasons, candidates fail to properly engage with diverse constituencies, allowing turnout to fall. This also explains why Hispanic and Asian voters have worse turnout drops than Black voters. For many Virginian voters, English is not their first language, and this is particularly true in Hispanic and Asian precincts of the aforementioned VPAP analysis. Black voters tend not to have a similar language barrier, allowing for only moderately lower turnout, even though white voters still maintain numbers at far better rates. Communicating with non-English-speaking constituencies is not impossible: campaigns can recruit volunteers that speak specific languages and campaign literature in other languages can be distributed to voters who need it. Failure of political candidates to appeal to their voters, however, is not indicative of a racist system, and should provide no bearing on movements to change or maintain Virginia’s election cycle. Politicians can and must do better.

One interesting consequence of holding off-year elections is that elections receive outsize national interest. Powerful party figures flood in from around the country, and money flows right into Virginia. There are thousands of state legislative seats around the country in even years, but in odd years there are far fewer elections taking place. It is worthwhile to investigate whether this actually has a tangible impact on the elections. Virginia held elections for the House of Delegates in 2017, and both the House and Senate in 2019. Many other states, including North Carolina, held their state legislative elections in 2018, a high-turnout midterm election. Virginia and North Carolina have similar demographics and population distribution. To make comparisons fair, these two states were also selected because their legislative districts have similar populations to Virginia’s.

As a case study, consider two State House districts, Virginia’s 21st and North Carolina’s 104th. Prior to their 2017/18 elections, both were represented by an incumbent Republican in districts that leaned Democratic: Virginia’s 21st would later be won by Joe Biden by 12.5% in 2020, and North Carolina’s 104th would be won by Biden by 17%. Furthermore, both were suburban districts on the outskirts of the largest city in their respective state, Virginia Beach and Charlotte. Both 2017 and 2018 were strong “blue waves,” and it appears that Virginia’s unique off-year status had a large impact. Both Republican incumbents were defeated, and the margins of victory were not very different. The Virginia Democrat won by 5 and the North Carolina Democrat won by 3. The story is very different once looking past the results. Even though the districts have similar populations, 41,939 people voted in North Carolina as opposed to only 23,849 in Virginia. This massive discrepancy in turnout makes sense, as people are less engaged in off years. Looking into the finances, the two candidates in Virginia spent a whopping total of $1,298,399, whereas the North Carolina candidates spent a total of $678,474 – a far lower total. Virginia receives additional attention in off years when it holds the most important elections, and this shows in the finances, as the Virginia candidates spent over three times as much money per vote. Such a discrepancy opens the door to the influences of “dark money,” since more money spent means more money was raised, but better funding undoubtedly leads to better campaigns. Well-run campaigns give voters more confidence in their representation, confidence that is invaluable to the health of American democracy. 

A brief focus on the extent to which off-year elections are covered is also helpful for context. As mentioned, Virginia is one of only two states to elect its governor the year after a presidential election. Virginia tends to dominate the news cycles of those years. Indeed, NPR’s breakdown of Election Day 2017 heavily focused on the results in Virginia. In addition, given that only three states select governors in years preceding presidential years, and given that every single Virginia legislative seat is up for election in those years, Virginia represents a sizable fraction of news coverage in these years. In 2019, the New York Times published an article titled “Election Day 2019: Key Votes in Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi.“ Kentucky and Mississippi had high-profile gubernatorial races, but so did Louisiana, which had an extremely tight gubernatorial election that year, something a reader would not be able to tell based on the headline. The fact that Virginia holds its elections in off-years attracts far more media attention, both putting increased scrutiny on candidates but also allowing Virginia to assert its importance nationally. The Virginia gubernatorial elections are often considered bellwethers for the upcoming federal midterms, which gives Virginian voters greater influence than voters in other states.

Off-year elections are a fun quirk of being a voter in Virginia. The odd year cycle impacts legislative elections in a myriad of ways, notably including turnout, campaign finances, and media attention. The uniqueness of the commonwealth’s election calendar has generated significant controversy, particularly over accusations of racism. However, knowing what we know, there is simply not enough of a case to move elections to even years. Though it has been done before, executing a shift in election scheduling would likely be a contentious and difficult logistical process. It would be such a gargantuan task that it has never been legitimately considered, and any such change would also be a shock to the Virginia political system. Given that the largest problem of off-year elections is actually best solved by individual politicians, it is in the interest of Virginia’s electorate to maintain the current cycle and continue to hold politicians accountable to their communities.