The 2020 Olympics scheduled to be held in Tokyo were touted as a “safe bet” compared to other recent Olympic Games given Japan’s status as an industry-leading advanced country. The city has prior experience hosting the games, and the spectacle would have been an incredible springboard to elevate Japan as a world leader in accordance with Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s desire to increase Japan’s involvement in international affairs. In a career filled with large promises, here was a true chance to deliver on the world stage, a worthy keystone in the legacy of Japan’s longest-serving Prime Minister.  

The 2020 Olympics did not happen. 

On August 28th, mired in some of the lowest approval ratings of his career, Prime Minister Abe resigned from his position, citing the resurgence of ulcerative colitis, which he has struggled with since adolescence.  He also blamed this ailment when he resigned from the Premiership in 2007, yet it was believed to be under control. Alas, in a routine checkup in June, his health deteriorated significantly, so he made the decision to leave his post of his own accord.  What remains is a host of unrealized aspirations that raise serious questions about Abe’s legacy and how Japan will look moving forward.

Prominent political leaders in history typically have a signature policy or accomplishment when discussing their record, such as President Obama’s Affordable Care Act or former Prime Minister Koizumi’s postal privatization reform.  Since he assumed office  in 2012, Abe has held a vice grip on power as the head of the Liberal Democratic Party during his second stint as Japan’s Prime Minister.  His record of dominance is unquestionable — six resoundingly consistent national election wins during his time in office in which the LDP won approximately 60% of the seats in the lower house. However, despite holding a majority in both houses of the national Diet for the entirety of his term, there is not much to show from his slate of ambitious policy proposals.  

Abe’s main attempt at a signature policy lay in his namesake “Abenomics” which operates on what he calls the “three arrows”: monetary easing to inflate the currency, fiscal stimulus to increase spending, and structural reforms.  His strategy is intended to restore the confidence of a nation that has experienced 20 years of deflation and encourage bullishness from companies. This will in turn resume investing and hiring regular workers from Japan’s displaced younger workforce.  Despite implementing his “Abenomics” policy early in his first term as Prime Minister, the promised two percent growth in GDP and structural reforms have yet to realize any level of success.  To tackle structural reforms, he created 20 new executive policy committees within his first month in office focused on contemporary issues such as Japan’s aging population and the role of women in the workforce.  However, Abe’s promises of structural reforms must inspire action. By failing to enact meaningful policy to cure those plagues on the Japanese economy, “Abenomics” has done little more than sloganeer for change without results.

Abe has a strong sense of bravado and showmanship that translated into a nationalist tilt in many of his policies. As far as legislation goes, his most notable accomplishment is the reinterpretation of Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which allows Japan to act with its allies in collective self defense. However, this still fell short of his stated goals of amending Article 9 to allow Japan to remilitarize and take a greater role in foreign conflicts. There is a consistent pattern throughout much of Abe’s premiership in which he jettisons certain policies through the Diet that are contrary to the public’s wishes such as the Article 9 reinterpretation. At the same time, many of his more popular policy prescriptions such as revitalizing the aging population and empowering Japan’s women received widespread acclaim yet never seemed to translate into legislative action. Abe’s bravado helped keep him in the spotlight as a figurehead for the country, but his actual service to his people left much to be desired.

Japan’s bid for the 2020 Olympics was a gamble on which Abe staked his personal pride and reputation.  He intended to quell any worries by the world powers that Japan was unable to handle itself in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster by creating an incredible display highlighting his country’s uniquely advanced society. In reality, much of the cleanup has been handled poorly and there are still dangerous levels of irradiated material at the site of the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant. The plant’s proximity to Tokyo is considered a safe distance, but the unfinished cleanup leaves yet another high profile promise Abe has failed to keep.

The Tokyo Olympics also have run into a problem common to many recent Olympic host countries: rampant overspending. The 2013 initial bid for the 2020 Olympics included a budget that was set at $7.3 billion. This budget has been completely blown out with organizers claiming they are spending $12.6 billion. However,  independent calculations by the Japanese financial newspaper Nikkei find that number could reach as high as $28 billion. With much of this financial burden being placed on the Japanese taxpayers, a recent poll has found that 53.6% of Japanese companies, upset by the lack of government transparency, are calling for the games to be cancelled since it has already been postponed a year in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The chance of losing the opportunity to host the Olympics also bodes poorly for Japan’s role as a major player in foregin affairs on the world stage.  The historical significance of hosting the Olympics as a tool for garnering political and economic prestige is unquestionable. One needs to look no further than the example of Berlin 1936, shortly before WWII, to see how a country can orchestrate a spectacle for the rest of the world that highlights their political system and way of life as the supreme option. Serving as an Olympic host country gives that country full power over the narrative as they tell their story to the rest of the world. Abe’s Olympics would have been a prime symbol of the efforts of his premiership displayed in grand fashion. By forfeiting the opportunity to show off his country’s economic stability as the world’s third-largest GDP, Abe will likely also fail to realize his efforts to cement Japan as a respected actor in global politics.

Abe’s last hope lies in his successor and former right-hand man Yoshihide Suga who served under Abe as Chief Cabinet Secretary for the entire eight years Abe held the Prime Ministership. Recently minted Prime Minister Suga is considered by many pundits to have been a driving force behind Abe’s stability in office, with Abe serving as the charismatic visionary and Suga the detail-oriented workhorse in the background. Suga’s administration offers a stable transition due to his intimate knowledge of Abe’s Prime Ministership, which is good for the country during the uncertain times created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Suga is likely to continue with a number of policies carried over from the Abe administration and his recently appointed cabinet. A bright spot for Abe is the retainment of his Olympics minister Seiko Hashimoto.  If she succeeds in hosting the Games in Tokyo in 2021, it will reflect well on Abe.  

Suga’s relatively low public profile makes it difficult to make assumptions about how Japan will proceed after Abe’s administration. Their political talents lie in different areas which made them an excellent team but those areas that Suga lacks are likely to be exposed. He has admitted that Abe’s skills as a diplomat far exceed his own. With the goal of reaching a more level playing ground on the global political stage, Suga will benefit just as much as Abe in pursuing a successful Olympics. Although a simple continuation of the Abe administration might not be the best for the country in the long run due to the apparent failure by “Abenomics” to revitalize Japan’s economy, Suga’s administration might tell a different story if he succeeds in executing the promises of Abe in his own way.  

Abe needs the Olympics to happen next year in order to cement his legacy as Prime Minister. He has nothing else to point to as a true signature accomplishment in his career but does not deserve to be lost to history given the stability in leadership he has provided to his country. If the Tokyo Olympics occur in the summer of 2021 Abe will rightfully receive the credit for its success as he staked so much of his career on organizing and bringing the games to his country. A successful Olympics will make the failures of his time in office fall by the wayside as his name becomes forever linked with the accomplishment. If not, the eight-year project will become yet another addition to the list of unfulfilled promises that mark his lacking legacy.